Early elections ill-timed
A new race for power begins in Bulgaria
публикувано на 27.09.24 в 07:20
From today, 27 September, Bulgaria is once again in a 30-day election campaign.
28 parties and 11 coalitions have registered with the Central Election Commission to take part in the next early parliamentary elections, and 19 parties and 9 coalitions will eventually compete for the public's vote on October 27.
The upcoming campaign is unlikely to surprise Bulgarian voters, who are fed up with elections, says political scientist Tatyana Burudzhieva.
"As this is the 7th election campaign in the last 3 years, telling people it's important to vote again for a so-called 'hope for the future' - when nothing ever seems to change - naturally creates a serious disconnect between politicians and citizens," says Assoc. Prof. Burudzhieva.
The pessimists, who number around 60 per cent of the electorate according to pollsters, are unlikely to be motivated to vote. The dwindling group of optimists, or staunch supporters of the parties, make up about 28 per cent of eligible voters, according to the latest Gallup International polls in the Balkans.
A low turnout reduces the representativeness of the future parliament. It also lowers the number of votes needed to pass the 4% threshold to enter the National Assembly. This increases the chances of MPs from more formations being seated and makes it more difficult to form a majority and coalition government.
The upcoming elections on 27 October introduce a new layer of intrigue that goes beyond voter turnout.
For the first time, two of the old establishment parties, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), are divided in their leadership at the start of the campaign. Bulgaria's oldest party (the BSP) will enter parliament, but its electoral base has continued to shrink in a series of elections. Both factions of the DPS, known as the country's party of ethnic Turks, led by honorary leader Ahmed Dogan and co-leader Delyan Peevski, are expected to be represented in the 51st National Assembly.
"The two formations will together get fewer votes than the DPS got in the last elections (in the current parliament, the DPS is the fourth political force with 22 MPs - editor's note). The effect of the split will be to discourage some regular voters from casting their ballots. Despite the existence of controlled voting and instruments of influence in the municipalities, the electorate still perceives Dogan as an icon - a founder, a kind of mystical figure," political scientist Ivo Indzhov told BNR.
The current pre-election situation is prompting other candidates to seek unconventional strategies. For the first time, GERB (the leading party in the current National Assembly) is including mayors of large municipalities as leaders on its lists, knowing that they will not remain as MPs but are expected to boost turnout in their regions. The second party in the 50th National Assembly - We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) - is preparing to regain the votes it lost in urban areas in the last elections, and will once again campaign on the social media platforms favoured by its supporters.
"Political parties are not primarily focused on governing; their main goal is to prevent their opponents from coming to power," Parvan Simeonov of the polling agency Gallup International Balkan said at the start of the campaign.
"I think they will try to have a cabinet this time. I hear it, I see it. Both (GERB leader) Borissov and the PP-DB have a formula... I hope so, because it would be extremely good for our country. Because now there are voices for a change in the system. And any change in the system in Bulgaria at the moment, in my opinion, will ultimately lead to something worse. Better a bad but familiar system, with experience and historical tradition, than changes that will turn things upside down," Simeonov told BNR.
Voters already know that if the new 51st Parliament fails to elect a regular government, they will have to go to the polls again in the spring of 2025. After all, democracy is first and foremost the voice of the people.
Photos: BGNES, BTA
Translated and posted by Elizabeth Radkova
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