It is difficult to predict the voter turnout and the election results of the five parties which are expected to attract highest electoral support. This is the conclusion of the election campaign for the early general elections, which is taking place in Bulgaria today. Sociologists and political scientists are refraining to make any forecasts about the outcome of the early general elections for several reasons. The Parliamentary elections are taking place in the middle of July- “an almost unprecedented situation in recent political history”, sociologist Parvan Simeonov commented in an interview for Radio Bulgaria. In his words, nearly half a million voters will decide in the last minute which party to support. In Parvan Simeonov’s view, there were certain shortcoming during the election campaign and we are yet to learn their effect on the final results of the elections. Firstly, the dialogue between the politicians running for MPs and the citizens has not been constructive enough:

“This demarcates the political space, creating a kind of a parallel reality. Some people say that what has been said is right and others say it is wrong, – noted Parvan Simeonov and added that this created a frozen social conflict with clear demarcation lines, indicating a highly divided society. - Fortunately, this does not concern the majority of the people, because they are not so highly politicized. The amendments to the Electoral Code regarding the way general elections are held may become a factor on election day. For the first time, voting machines will be used in almost all polling stations. People are to vote with ballot papers only when a technical failure occurs, or in polling stations with less than 300 voters. The smooth running of voting in more than 700 polling stations abroad is of particular importance, because the weight the votes by Bulgarians abroad carry will tip the scale in favor of one or another political force.”

“The big question is whether voters abroad will show bigger interest in the general elections, or voting will merely become easier. As far as I know, the number of voting applications have not exceeded the number of voting applications submitted during the previous elections in April. In all honesty, Bulgaria had problems with the opening of polling stations only in non-EU countries (as the number of polling stations in non-EU countries was restricted to 35 in the previous elections). Now, this problem has been solved.”

The summer holiday season and the large number of pre-planned trips of Bulgarians abroad to their home country are not likely to affect their willingness to vote, noted sociologist Simeonov and added:

“These people can cast their ballots in Bulgaria, if they are allowed by law. As far as I am aware, many people have registered in places located along Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast in advance. A fair number of polling stations will open in places located along the Ionian Sea. In other words, those who are willing to vote at the early general elections have enough opportunities to do so.”

Parvan Simeonov is convinced that despite the questions marks surrounding the voter turnout and the election results, one thing is clear- the Bulgarian society looks forward to the formation of a new government and it would hardly accept another failure of the political parties to form a cabinet after the early Parliamentary elections. 

“The caretaker cabinet has shown to a great extent how such a government should look like, making the task of its formation a bit easier.”

English version: Kostadin Atanasov

Photos: BGNES