The sharp decline of remittance flows will have a devastating effect on a number of countries from the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the World Bank forecasts. Experts forecast that the amount of money sent by emigrants to these countries will lead to lower consumption. Bulgaria ranks fifth in the region in terms of the volumes of money transferred by emigrants to their families. According to estimates, this sum will not exceed USD 2.1 billion by end December, which is USD 200 million less than 2019.
Referring to data of the Bulgarian National Bank, economist Georgi Angelov estimated that so far emigrants have sent 60% less money as compared to last year. In an interview for the Bulgarian National Television, he clarified that there is a big difference between the amounts coming from permanent emigrants and those from seasonal workers.
In his words, the volume of money sent by permanent emigrants in the spring of 2020 decreased by 90% on an annual basis and almost no recovery has been registered until now. If in previous years Bulgarian emigrants sent an average of EUR 100 million per month, in 2020 they have sent just under EUR 10 million a month.
The situation regarding the money sent by seasonal workers, including people employed temporarily in other countries, TIR drivers, etc, is different. “The money sent by this group of workers dwindled significantly in the spring of 2020. However, we have witnessed a significant recovery in the past 1 to 2 months”, the economist says. Seasonal workers were sending nearly EUR 20 million a month during the first lockdown. Now, these funds are reaching EUR 60 million a month, Georgi Angelov added.
This data is confirmed by the statistics about the Bulgarians travelling abroad – in August and September 2020 half a million people travelled abroad on a monthly basis.
The money sent by emigrants has a serious impact on consumption in Bulgaria. “Between April and June, consumption fell 20% and one-third of this decline is due to the sharp decrease in the amount of money sent by emigrants to their home country”, Georgi Angelov clarified. However, in the summer of 2020, the negative trend quickly reversed.
Experts forecast a difficult winter due to the forthcoming partial lockdown in Bulgaria. They voiced hopes that in the spring of 2021 morbidity rate will decline and economies will start growing again.
Edited by: Elena Karkalanova
English version: Kostadin Atanasov
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