The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has updated its assessment for Bulgaria in 2020. Adjusted expectations of the EIU are for a 4% decline of GDP, while on April 28 the forecast was for 5.8% decline.
The explanation comes from the fact that in national statistics for the first quarter results are better than expected - GDP growth of 0.3% compared to the last three months of 2019 and growth of 2.4% on an annual basis. This leads to a better forecast for the fiscal deficit - 4.5% of GDP, instead of 6.3% for 2020 and 2.7% instead of 3.4% for 2021. The EIU predicts that because of entry into the Eurozone by 2023 the government would try to balance the budget deficit caused by Covid-19.
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