On the last day of March GERB party announced the names on its list of candidates, together with the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS), for the elections for European Parliament.

Bulgaria currently has 17 MEPs, 6 of whom are from GERB. At the elections for EP at the end of May GERB is expecting to win 8 seats, together with the SDS. One of the positions on the candidate list is for the SDS, a position high enough on the list to ensure an EP seat, and that means GERB is expecting the number of its own MEPs to go up from 6 to 7. Which sounds optimistic in light of the expected political fallout from the resignations of GERB parliamentary leader Tsvetan Tsvetanov, and of Justice Minister Tsetska Tsacheva, and of two deputy ministers, submitted and accepted after accusations of having purchased apartments at questionably low prices. But the optimism GERB is showing has its reasons, and with the words “we took a hit, and badly, and got the slaps in the face we had coming,” at the ceremony at which the candidate list was presented,GERB leader and prime minister Boyko Borissov made it clear he considers the case closed.

Tsvetan Tsvetanov is withdrawing from the post of chairman of the GERB parliamentary group, but is retaining the responsibilities of number 2 within the party, and of head of the party’s election headquarters. Tsvetanov’s post at the National Assembly is being taken over by Daniela Daritkova – a party member loyal to Tsvetanov in her capacity of head of the parliamentary healthcare committee and a member of GERB’s executive bureau. In the words of Boyko Borissov, Daritkova has the qualities needed to keep a rein on the GERB MPS, “in a good way”. As to the deputies of the cabinet ministers who resigned, they will be kept under control by the prime minister whose qualities in this respect nobody is doubting.

There is no noticeable change in the configuration of relations with the other political forces either. GERB’s partners from the ruling coalition are taking the changes in their stride. Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, who has frequently been at loggerheads with Tsvetanov, is not predicting any political turmoil after his withdrawal. The chairman of the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria Valeri Simeonov says that“certain problems may arise from now on in the work between the different parliamentary groups,” but promises that his own formation will support GERB’s new parliamentary leader “when there is reason to.” Veselin Mareshki, leader of Volya, which, though regarded as an opposition party frequently supports GERB during parliamentary votes, also says he will work with Daritkova. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, DPS, is delicately avoiding any comment, so as “not to interfere in other parties’ affairs.” The Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP, stated that replacing Tsvetanov was “political hypocrisy” because GERB’s number 2 is leaving parliament, “to remain in power”, and that the aim of the resignations was to ensure Borissov’s comfort until the next scandal breaks out. The BSP is still demanding early elections and, if it sticks to its decision, will not be taking part in the work of parliament until that time. Which does not alter the situation in the run-up to elections either.

What remains to be seen now are the predictions of polling agencies after the events of the past days. According to the latest surveys, some sociologists say GERB is ahead, others say the BSP is ahead by a thin margin. Surveys presented at the European Parliament at the beginning of March indicate that GERB would win 35.7 percent of the votes, BSP - 35.1 percent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, DPS - 10.7 percent, the United Patriots (if they run together) - 5.4 percent, Yes, Bulgaria - 2.4 percent, Volya and the Reformist Bloc - 2.2 percent each, ABV – 1.4 percent, and others - 4.9 percent.

There are less than two months to go until the elections for MEPs.

English version: Milena Daynova