The clock is ticking, with only 67 days to go until the elections for European Parliament in Bulgaria on 26 May. Candidate lists have to be registered no later than 32 days before election day, and for most political parties in the country this is a point of high drama.

Two days ago the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s National Council elected Elena Yoncheva, investigative journalist, currently MP, to top the list of its candidates, understandably engendering pre-election tensions within socialist ranks. And though the opposition inside the party was expecting the list to be topped by the leader of the Party of European Socialists (PES) Sergei Stanishev, the person that stepped in to head the list of candidates is not even a BSP member. Politicians from Stanishev’s inner circle are even saying they suspect manipulations in the process of electing who should top the list of BSP candidates.

Again last weekend, the once emblematic right-wing “Union of Democratic Forces” (SDS) declared it would hold negotiations with the “Democratic Bulgaria” coalition, which comprises “Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria” (DSB), “Yes, Bulgaria” and the Greens, for running in the elections together. But for these negotiations to take place two preliminary conditions were set down – that the order of the candidates on the joint list be determined by primary elections, and that the abbreviation – SDS – be included in the name of the coalition. The European People’s Party on its part urged the “authentic”, as they are known, right-wing parties to appear in the elections together with the ruling party GERB, but the DSB were adamant that no alliance with GERB was possible. Whatever the case, it looks like the traditional right-wing parties, who are not currently represented in the national parliament because they appeared at the parliamentary elections separately, will be making a stab at the EP elections as an opportunity to make a comeback from political oblivion.

The parties from the junior ruling coalition “The United Patriots” – the VMRO, the “National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria” (NFSB) and Ataka – seem to be heading in the exact opposite direction. As they continue their incessant bickering, from united in the executive branch inside Bulgaria, they are heading for the elections for EP “every man for himself”, each with a separate nomination for head of the list of candidates. After the latest attempt at a “truce” fell through, a week ago, VMRO leader Krasimir Karakachanov said he hoped “the morning would be wiser than the evening”, and appearing in the European elections together was still possible.

Within GERB party it looks like there are no problems or histrionics. The list of candidates for the European Parliament elections will most probably be headed by European Commissioner Mariya Gabriel who has the most nominations from the party’s local structures.

Nor is there any pre-election drama within the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, the DPS, which declared a month ago it would appear independently, with a list of 17 candidates who would be presented to the party’s election campaign headquarters by 30 March.

As things now stand in the run up to the elections, nothing short of a crystal ball can help anyone predict what will happen. Before the election campaign has kicked off in earnest, there are some sociologists who say GERB will get more votes, others say the BSP will win by a slight margin.

According to the latest survey presented at the European Parliament at the beginning of March, if the elections were to be held now GERB would win 35.7 percent of the votes, BSP – 35.1, DPS - 10.7, the “United Patriots” (if they appear together) – 5.4, “Yes, Bulgaria” – 2.4, Volya and the “Reformist block” 2.2 percent each, ABV – 1.4, and others – 4.9 percent of the votes. If these results prove true, Bulgaria will have 8 MEPs with the European People’s Party, 6 with the Socialists and Democrats, 2 with ALDE, and one as yet unidentified as affiliated to any political group.

English version: Milena Daynova