Until a couple of years ago everyone was complaining that unemployment in Bulgaria was too high – there have been years when it came close to 13 percent. Now, everyone is complaining of a shortage of labour – highly qualified staff, but also workers without experience and with no particular professional skills or work habits. Unemployment is now 5.6 percent, and the number of unemployed has gone down by 22 percent since the beginning of the year. More than 60 percent of employers say they are unable to find employees, and that this is hindering their businesses and is slowing down economic growth.

An international analysis by the prestigious PwC consulting puts Bulgaria top of the list of EU countries in losses sustained as a result of labour shortages – no less than 13.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. Second comes Romania, though its “accomplishment” is half of what Bulgaria is showing – a mere 6 percent. In effect, this means that if businesses were able to engage the employers they need, Bulgaria’s GDP would be 13.2 percent higher. An analysis by Manpower puts Bulgaria in 5^th position in terms of labour shortage – after Japan (89 percent), Romania (81 percent), Taiwan (78 percent) и Hong Kong (76 percent).

There are plenty of causes of this shortage on the labout market, and, apparently, not just in Bulgaria. Top of the list is education, which sends to the labour market people with skills and qualification that are a far cry from what businesses need in reality. In this sense, World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva was overly optimistic when she said that Bulgaria was doing a better job of investing in human capital than other countries with similar incomes. For the first time the bank presented a Human Capital Index, based on five separate components, in which the country is in 44^th position in the world – last but one among all EU member countries. Top of the list is Singapore. The Human Capital Index calculates what portion of their potential young people are able to fulfil. It shows that a child born in Bulgaria today would attain 68 percent of his/her potential. If it is a girl, the percentage is slightly higher – 71, if it is a boy it is slightly lower – 65. Still, things are not as dramatic as all that, and steps aimed at bringing schooling closer to businesses are being taken. Big hopes are currently being pinned on dual education which combines classical schooling with practical work at companies and factories. It is still too early to tell whether any tangible positive results are to be expected in Bulgaria, though this kind of education has borne ample fruit in Germany, Switzerland and other advanced countries. Another measure Bulgaria is putting in place aimed at overcoming the labour shortage is to bring in workers from abroad. However, at present it is a question of no more than 5,000 people for work in hotels, bars and restaurants at seaside resorts during the summer season. And most of those are people of Bulgarian descent, coming primarily from Ukraine and Moldova.

The demographic crisis is another factor of enormous impact on employment, or unemployment respectively, in Bulgaria. The population is ageing at a rapid pace, there are more people leaving the labour market than there are new employees coming in, i.e. the workforce is dwindling and growing older. Under the circumstances it would be difficult to expect the economy to reach a high level technologically, or in terms of added value. To this crisis we should add one more phenomenon – the unprecedented wave of emigrating Bulgarians, who go abroad, mostly in Europe, to find a job. There are emigrants who go to pick strawberries in the UK or oranges in Greece, but there are also bankers, university professors, entrepreneurs, highly respected doctors and IT experts. Emigrating may be a good thing for them and their families, whom they send back money, though in the long-term, it is not a good thing for Bulgaria. Because in combination with many other factors it casts doubts on its future as a nation, and as a state with a prospering and happy population. The world is a big place and there is trouble everywhere, and nobody is going to come and solve Bulgaria’s problems. That is something that is up to the dwindling number of Bulgarians left in their country.

English version: Milena Daynova