Bulgaria has never seen such low level of unemployment for a decade – the share of unemployed people is 7.2% of those in active age, or some 200,000 people. At the same time 300,000 able-bodied Bulgarians don’t work, don’t look for a job and don’t study. Business complains about the lack of manpower, while at the same time the economy scores a 4% of annual GDP growth, with an upward trend.

Some experts say that things are not as bright as they look at first sight. Yes, there is economic growth, but at the same time there are no larger foreign investments and also there is this lack of manpower. Economy growth is upheld by domestic demand and export, but is not based on new investments in production capacities and HR. Some people claim it is a balloon and economy overheating, leading to a collapse at a certain point.

Basically any downward trend in the unemployment level is positive. At the same time on this particular case with Bulgaria there are nuances. The drop in the number of those unemployed is due not only to economic growth, but rather to the export of manpower. Practically there is no Bulgarian family nowadays without at least one member working abroad. This is most relevant to experienced and skilled employees. So, one of the reasons for the lowered unemployment rate is the fact that many found their jobs in other countries.

There are numerous reasons for this huge labor migration, but low wages remain the major one. Working poor people can be met everywhere in Bulgaria and with different skills – from workers to highly skilled economy experts, lawyers or doctors. Adding the aging and reducing population to that picture only leads to the conclusion that the economic growth is highly endangered by the simple lack of manpower. The record low level of unemployment right now only comes to prove that. Renowned experts state that in case employers could find the work hand they needed on the labor market, then the economic growth would easily exceed 6%, thus bringing Bulgaria closer to the living standard of the developed countries. That would in its turn result in decreasing emigration pressure on economy, making more stable and prosperous. Authorities try to ease and fund the professional qualification of unemployed people in order for the gap between demand and offer at the labor market gets at least partially filled.

The other way to find the necessary working hand is to import some. Bulgarian businessmen are aware of that method, but it won’t be easy, as basically manpower migrates from less developed to better developed countries. Being the poorest EU member-state Bulgaria has little to offer to foreign workers. Still, some attempts have been registered for import of workers from Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia. Now measures are forthcoming for more easily employing of manpower from abroad. However, observers of that process are not too optimistic.

Experts are also skeptic towards the eventual return of at least part of the Bulgarians who have already emigrated in terms of offering to them wages similar to the ones received abroad. Many Bulgarians have already settled there for good, having families and real estate properties – it’s hard to leave all that behind for the sake of some patriotic feelings only. We may somehow be “consoled” by the fact that the economic growth and the lack of manpower it entails probably won’t last too long and the time for cuts will come sooner or later, i.e. a surplus of HR will be formed. May we have new options and solutions for improvement of the quality and quantity of Bulgarian skilled employees by then.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev