At the outset of its rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union Bulgaria stated clearly that in the next 6 months it would make the final steps towards the accession into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-2), also known the Eurozone waiting room.

This is a very substantial, yet expected evolution in the policy line of the Bulgarian authorities, which have been very cautious in the past 11 years of EU membership with regard to the country’s accession in the Eurozone, although each EU member state is obliged to adopt sooner or later the Euro as official currency.

According to the World Bank, the Bulgarian economy has been developing positively in the past 2-3 years and the country’s GDP is growing with nearly 4% year on year. The economic outlook for the next 2 years is positive as well. Inflation is under control and in 2017 it was at 2.8% after years of registered deflation in this country. The foreign debt is under 30% of the gross domestic product and a budget surplus has been also registered. The EUR-BGN exchange rate is fixed and has not been changed for nearly 20 years now. These indicators are in fact part of the Maastricht criteria (euro convergence criteria) related to the Eurozone membership. Bulgaria has written its homework, Premier Borissov said during the official ceremonies which marked the start of the Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Bulgaria’s stand on this topic is important, but the opinion of the European institutions, which have to take the final decision, matters the most and things look quite controversial in this aspect. All financial and economic institutions believe that Bulgaria must be part of the Eurozone. The World Bank and its Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva, as well as the International Monetary Fund share that stand, too. The President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker has repeatedly said that Bulgaria’s place is in the Eurozone. Mr Juncker voiced against his support towards Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone during the official opening of the Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of the EU.

However, the international political observers and financial experts are much more cautious regarding the chances of this country to adopt the Euro. They also admit that Bulgaria has fulfilled all technical criteria, but remind that this is a political decision which has to be taken in full consensus. And here things get vague and divergent. Bulgaria is perceived in different EU member states quite differently. A number of major international media published quite objective, yet very critical information about Bulgaria accentuating on topics related to corruption, crime and poverty. Moreover, Bulgaria is advised that before adopting the Euro, it should catch up to some extent with the life standard of the other Eurozone members. Currently, this is only a wishful thinking, because many things must change in this country before Bulgaria reaches 60% of the average life standard in the EU, as recommended. However, Bulgaria is on the right track and has been making quick positive steps in some fields. That is why it is quite realistic to expect that in the mid 2020’s this country may become part of the Eurozone. The confidence of the Bulgarian authorities is higher than ever against the backdrop of the positive economic development of this country. However, we should not forget the bitter experience related to the country’s non-admission to the Schengen and the ineffective special monitoring of the EU in the field of interior and justice which are dictated for political reasons, although Bulgaria has formally fulfilled all written rules and criteria. At the end of the day the EU has to be unbiased and be the living example of the application of the rule of law.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov