Will there be a second nuclear power plant in Bulgaria? This is a question that has not received a clear answer for some 30 years. Yesterday, scientists from the prestigious Bulgarian Academy of Sciences tried to give their opinion, which was expected in both the energy community and the political class with great attention. From a purely economic and technological, the issue has turned into a political in the past few years. Particularly after the parliamentary vote in 2012 that imposed a moratorium on the construction of the Belene plant on the banks of the Danube. The issue became even more political one when it turned out that over 1 billion euro of public money has already been spent on this project, which is now completely abandoned, while money is being spent on storing and protecting the ordered, produced and supplied by a Russian company two nuclear reactors, with authorities wondering what to do.

From the very beginning of the Belene saga, the main question was if Bulgaria needed a new nuclear power plant, in addition to the one in Kozloduy? In communist times, when Bulgarian industry was consuming enormous amounts of electricity, the answer seemed more than positive. But since then a lot has changed. The national economy has undergone radical changes, and from the former industrial giants today there is nothing more than useless piles of debris. There are no more big consumers of electricity. Moreover, new plants that have replaced the old industries no longer consume so much electricity; households have started to monitor their electricity consumption much more strictly, because of ever-increasing prices. Bulgaria today produces more electricity than it needs and therefore exports to neighboring countries where there is a shortage of electricity. It is true that existing power plants in the country have a vague future because environmental standards are becoming more stringent and this is alarming to the three largest coal-fired power stations in the country, which would be sanctioned if they do not comply with eco rules, while the prize of their electricity would be unpayable to Bulgarians if they met the new standards. The first Bulgarian nuclear power plant is now approaching the end of its life, although one of its two units was given 10 years more life.

In fact, electricity in Bulgaria is currently in surplus, but the risk of shortage in the near future is quite real. And the construction of a second nuclear power plant is not a task to be carried out for a year or two, but is a project that will need at least 5 years to be realized. When will Bulgaria start needing more electricity, according to pessimists?

These are facts that are known to both energy specialists and authorities. Now the word of the scientists was also heard. According to them, if investment costs of less than EUR 10.5 billion are achieved, with a ratio of 70:30 of attracted to own financing and an interest rate below 4.5%, the Belene NPP project would be viable. It becomes considerably more viable if the state is involved. However, the state is now stubbornly pulling out of this project, refusing any state participation even in the form of state guarantees. So a foreign investor must be found for the 70% stake in the project. Several unsuccessful attempts have already been made as efforts to find a strategic partner have even reached China, but nothing has been signed. The worst thing is doing nothing, BAS warn. Moreover, in the region near Bulgaria shortage of base power of about 2000 MW is expected.

There is a science that is called political economy, and BAS scientists are probably aware of its basic postulates that clarify the links between economy and politics. In the case with the Belene nuclear power plant project this is more than obvious. Economists and energy experts have said their word, and the opinion of politicians is still to be heard. Energy Minister Temenuzhka Petkova has pointed out that the BAS report should be discussed in parliament and that this should be done quickly but without haste. And it is likely that political debate will make it clear that whatever we talk about it is always about money. There is no money for building of a second state nuclear power plant without foreign investments, but there are assets that are available and which are worth close to the recommended state participation share of 30%. So, according to scientists from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Belene NPP project might get a green light.

English: Alexander Markov