An idea by Bulgaria’s three-time prime minister Boyko Borissov until recently deemed utopian, that of turning the country into a major European gas trading centre, was given a leg up, albeit moderately, by the biggest gas supplier in Europe – Russia’s state consortium Gazprom.

Last weekend Bulgarian Energy Minister Temenuzhka Petkova and Gazprom chief Alexey Miller signed a road map in St. Petersburg for the construction and expansion of the Bulgarian gas transmission system. Of building the Bulgarian gas hub that was even given a name a long time ago – Balkan – official reports say not a word. However, according to experts, this road map is a step towards making a gas hub on the Black Sea coast a reality. From this hub the government plans to make money out of selling gas to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe as well as transit charges.

So far, so good, at least on paper. Problems and uncertainties arise if we sit down to think where the gas this country wants to sell will actually come from. Bulgaria is not a Middle Eastern country rich in gas, nor is it Russia which supplies the whole of Europe. Nature has not endowed Bulgaria with any gas of its own with the exception of one or two negligible gas fields. It is true Bulgaria’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone is being probed for oil and gas, but the probes will continue for quite some time and what may or may not be found there is anybody’s guess. So, in the next 10 years or so, Bulgaria doesn’t stand a chance of relying on gas or oil resources of its own.

South Stream, the aborted gas pipeline project that was supposed to traverse Bulgaria to reach Central Europe, fueled the hopes of putting through the idea of a gas hub as it was supposed to have a capacity of 60 billion cubic metres a year and some of this gas could have been bought by Bulgarian companies to re-export. In reality that could never have come to pass if Gazporm refused to go by the EU rules and allow other gas suppliers to use its pipes. Be as it may, there would have been gas in Bulgaria for its own needs and for export. Instead, Russia turned its attention to Turkey and signed an agreement for the construction of Turkish Stream with a capacity of 15 billion cubic meters of gas. After the initial disappointment, the powers that be in the country began to discern in this gas pipeline another chance of putting through their gas trading ideas.

It is no coincidence that when Minister Temenuzhka Petkova met with Gazprom’s Alexey Miller, the two discussed the delivery of gas to Bulgaria in amounts that will fit the flow of a second Turkish Stream pipe, or some other derivation in the direction of Bulgaria, to a T. But this amount is so huge that the gas transmission system in Bulgaria now in existence cannot possibly cope. And it is here that the negotiations with Gazprom on the construction and extension of the national gas transmission grid come in, making the Balkan hub project much more realistic. All the more so that Sofia is currently making a great deal of effort to build gas interconnectors with its neighbours - Turkey, Greece, Romania and Serbia – the countries the gas sold via Balkan would traverse.

The European Commission has stamped its approval on the Bulgarian idea of a gas hub and has even promised financing. A couple of days ago Germany also greenlighted it, even though it will take quite some time to put the idea through – at least 5-6 years, experts say. And this, provided the situation in the Balkans remains stable and there is no straining of relations with Russia or with Turkey. There is one more problem that merits attention – diversification of supply. A possible Black sea gas hub and its supply with Russian gas can only boost Russia’s influence and not just in Bulgaria but in all countries of Europe which choose to make use of the Bulgarian gas hub – which comes down to geopolitics where  economic reasoning is apt to give way to political calculations and expediency.

English version: Milena Daynova