EU Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialogue Valdis Dombrovskis visited Bulgaria these days, meeting with almost all top high-ranking officials, who have some authority, regarding the euro and the eventual stepping of Bulgaria into the Eurozone. “We are waiting for you – whenever you are ready” was the basic message of the top Brussels official, called Mr. Euro by some people. He didn’t miss the chance to praise Bulgaria for its financial stability, low debt and balanced governmental expenses, but at the same time criticized the economic imbalances, the threatening high internal debt and the labor market issues. Of course, Mr. Dombrovskis’ visit was presented to media in the most schematic manner – with the typical official phrases and courtesy. However, in reality things are a bit different. Those in charge, headed by PM Boyko Borissov want the introduction of the euro as this country’s official currency as soon as possible.

Financial Minister Vladislav Goranov’s optimism is most reserved and he will be satisfied with Bulgaria’s stepping into the ‘waiting room’ of the Eurozone – the so-called ERMII mechanism. Even if this happens, it will remain vague how much time will pass for us in this ‘waiting room’ before the true Eurozone membership. In fact things are a bit clearer now, after the visit of Mr. Dombrovskis, as the requirement will be: GDP per capita equal to at least 70% of what’s average for the Eurozone member-states. Its current level is below 50%, but the country has been gradually catching up with the more developed ones. The pace is unsatisfactory, according to the economy experts of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, who think that Bulgaria needs at least 5% of annual economy growth, in order to be able to stand up next to the other EU member-states somewhere in the visible future. This perspective lies only in the premier’s dreams for the moment, who doesn’t feel shy to reveal his hopes for 4.5 – 6% of economic growth this year. All the other experts, Bulgarian and foreign, alongside the EC, IMF, WB etc. say: around 3%. It’s not bad at all as achievement, but it doesn’t push the country fast enough towards the euro. Governor of the Central Bank of Bulgaria Dimitar Radev, one of the main figures within the process also cooled everybody down by saying that the banking system would be ready for the euro no earlier than 18 – 24 months from now.

At the same time it is clear to everybody that Bulgaria’s stepping into the Eurozone is not a purely financial issue, related to certain requirements, but it is also a political one and the Achilles’ heel of the state. The latter has very low rating of trust in the EU and almost no lobby in Brussels. The country remains in the periphery with its voice and opinion not so strong or significant for the decision-makers. Obviously the average Bulgarians also see things this way and they, unlike the governing officials, are not too keen to pay in euros for goods, or to receive their salaries this way. In fact they often use the euro now as well, with its rate fixed and a series of payments performed with the usage of this tool. At the same time the poorest EU members don’t feel much better due to this fact. The improvised poll of a big information portal shows that most Bulgarians would opt for waiting right now and seeing the close future of the euro with all possible scenarios of “multi-speed Europe” and also the eventual capsulation of the Eurozone, where unwanted guests shall not be welcome. There is plenty of evidence that Bulgaria is seen precisely as an unwanted guest and all those are at the political level. As some experts say, politics has begun to lead the economy of the EU, instead of the opposite. If they played by their own rules, the people in Europe should have assessed accordingly the excellent economic indexes and positive assessments, received by business and economic circles around the globe.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev