The gas pipeline project that was supposed to run along the Black Sea bed to Bulgaria, and further, reaching Central and Western Europe was scrapped a little over two years ago, on instructions by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. After long and difficult negotiations, fraught with controversy, Moscow and Ankara signed an agreement on a new gas pipeline – Turkish Stream – that again runs along the Black Sea bed to Europe. To this moment it is not quite clear what lies behind this gas pipeline and whether, if it is ever built at all, it could serve as an alternative to South Stream.

This was something even Russian President Putin admitted, albeit indirectly, when he stated in Budapest last week that Moscow would still like to develop cooperation with Europe, though it wants guarantees. Putin also took a jab at Bulgaria, saying that even Bulgaria may come into play after having succumbed to European Commission pressure.

Can Putin’s words in Hungary be construed as testing the waters for possible new gas projects with the involvement of Bulgaria? Yes, they can, because this kind of maneuvering goes back further than last week, as a matter of fact it is a ruse that has, in one form of another, been used ever since the South Stream project was ostensibly scrapped over two years ago. Naturally, to begin with, Moscow put out its intelligence feelers at a low level, the level of well and lesser known gas experts, who looked into and outlined possible options for constructing or transforming the gas pipeline project. Whatever the interpretations, conclusions or forecasts, the country that Putin had “erased” from Russia’s gas map of Europe, Bulgaria, was invariably part of them. The idea that grew to be most popular was to have one of the two planned gas pipes under Turkish Stream pass across Bulgaria, making it something of a mini-South Stream. This was music to the ears of Bulgaria’s former government, which were laying down plans how to build a distribution hub on the spot where the pipe will reach dry land, and from it, sell gas to all of Bulgaria’s neighbours and even to countries in Central Europe, at a profit. Now these same hopes are being revived with the idea of separating the two Turkish Stream pipes, so that one of them may reach the Bulgarian shore of the Black Sea. This, as yet theoretical opportunity is making the Russophiles from the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) particularly happy and especially the BSP’s top energy expert Yavor Kuyumdjiev. His prediction is that this project will be a success, but he adds to it, in the same Russian vein, the shelved Belene nuclear power plant project, as well as the addition of one more reaction to Kozluduy, Bulgaria’s nuclear power station that has been in existence and functioning successfully for many years.

Seeing as at this time, there is no parliament or legitimately elected government, there has been no official response by the Bulgarian authorities. That there have been overtures and talks is abundantly clear, but there is one other thing that is no less clear – that on the eve of what look like being fiercely fought parliamentary elections, no one will risk stating what Sofia thinks on the matter out loud. There is simply no one who could do so, least of all the caretaker government which can count itself lucky if it has a lifespan of 4-5 months. Whereas with a decision of such strategic magnitude, any clear-cut position by the Bulgarian side would be simply unthinkable before the upcoming elections or before a new regular government is formed, but when that will happen nobody can tell. Moreover, having had a taste of Brussels’ influence on the matter, Putin certainly won’t lay down a single pipe without guarantees and coordination with the EU. In the event of the March elections in Bulgaria being won by the left-wing BSP, this would make the task so much easier. This is something the leader of the BSP Kornelia Ninova came right out and said plainly, adding that after the victory of the presidential candidate supported by her party, Rumen Radev, this was just the beginning of the changes. In these changes, the emphasis is first and foremost on bringing relations and cooperation closer with Putin’s Russia.

English version: Milena Daynova