In September 2016 the International Monetary Fund raised the outlook for Bulgaria's economic growth to 3% of the country's gross domestic product. Several days ago the World Bank did the same. It even showed higher optimism than the IMF and announced that according to its estimates, Bulgaria's economy would register 3.5% growth in 2016. Outgoing Premier Boyko Borissov was very satisfied with this news and hinted in the social networks that his cabinet contributed a lot to that figure. We should not try to find out whether Premier Borissov is right, or the economic cycle has merely reached its peak, because economic cycles influence politics and politics play vital role over the economic achievements and those principles are described in the political economy books.

It is important to note, however, that those impressive figures have been reached without the financial support of the European Union, which has not started to fulfill its 2014-2020 financial programmes yet and Bulgaria has not received any substantial subsidies under various cohesion programmes. Moreover, the international business conjuncture was not that favorable for Bulgaria's exporters and manufacturers. In other words, the positive economic results are mainly due to local political and business efforts and high local demand. Thus, the state authorities managed to collect higher revenues and the surplus of the state budget amounted to EUR 750 million by the end of 2016, which is rather an exception in Europe, because the EU countries are making great efforts to hold their public expenditures under control and observe the holy European rule, which says that the countries' budget deficits should not exceed 3% of their GDP.

The World Bank also announced its economic forecast for 2017. It projects that the growth of Bulgaria's economy will be lower as compared to last year. The country's economy is expected to increase with 2.9% and the World Bank placed Bulgaria in the top rankings in terms of many economic indicators.

All indicators, indices, and forecasts have real impact on the state and its citizens. The Bulgarian citizens are not filled with happiness and Bulgaria is among the most- unhappy nations worldwide, various international surveys show. Besides, the Bulgarian people are the poorest EU citizens and quality of life in Bulgaria is lowest in the whole union. However, there is a light in the business tunnel. Productiveness in all industrial sectors has been increasing, although it remains nearly ten times lower as compared to the highest productivity in the EU. That is why the incomes of the Bulgarian citizens have been gradually increasing with nearly 10% per year. The higher incomes boost local consumption and to some extent contribute to higher economic growth, together with the country's exports.

The conservative cabinet of Premier Borissov has been following an austerity policy and did not dare taking any serious measures aimed at increasing the state pensions and the salaries of the people employed at the public sector. Borissov already handed the resignation of his cabinet and Bulgaria is to hold early Parliamentary elections in the spring of 2017.If the Bulgarian Socialist Party becomes first political party after the forthcoming elections, the state is expected to allot more money to the social system. The country has the necessary financial resource for active social policy. The country's fiscal reserves exceed EUR 7 billion. This money is kept for rainy days when Bulgaria may be subject to local or international turbulence. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have already urged the local authorities to pay more attention to the poor, the elderly people, the people with health problems and those with low education, because social imbalances pose a risk at the economic growth and political stability.

English version: Kostadin Atanasov