The campaign for the presidential elections has been underway for three days. Election confrontation was expected to be weaker on domestic policy issues compared to foreign policy ones. In a paradoxical way though, a foreign-policy issue, notably, the election of a new United Nations Secretary General, was distorted into a loud squabbling at home over the unsuccessful performance of the government’s candidate for the top UN job Kristalina Georgieva. The predictions of some observers that this topic won’t impact the election campaign will hardly become reality, because in the few days remaining until the vote on 6 November, demands raised for a no-confidence vote against the government and for the withdrawal of Kristalina Georgieva from her position of European Commission Vice President are more likely to escalate than not. The question is not whether but how strongly the outcome at the United Nations will impact on the outcome of the presidential elections in Bulgaria.

Three days ago support for the presidential pair nominated by the ruling Gerb stood at 19.8%, and for the one singled out by the Bulgarian Socialist Party – at 14.9%. For less than a month’s time the difference of 5.1 percentage points will hardly melt but the race will grow closer and such a scenario means a decisive regrouping of forces at the runoff. Although they have separate contenders in the campaign the leftwing BSP and ABV are in joint consultations over a no-confidence vote against the government and this common cause may bring them together against the contender of Gerb. Despite its split DPS (the predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms) has not abandoned its longtime ambition to act a decisive role in the outcome of the presidential race, tipping the scales to the benefit of a certain candidate.

Parties view presidential elections as testing the ground for early parliamentary ones, and PM Borissov already stated that in case his party failed at the first round, he would stepping down and thus cause snap elections. Public opinion polls suggest that if parliamentary elections were called today, voters would vote as follows: 26.70 percent for Gerb, 13.80 percent for BSP, 7.40 percent for the Patriotic Frontand 5.70 percent for the Reformist Bloc. This ratio of political forces will hardly remain this way after the presidential elections but whether the change will justify possible dating of early parliamentary ones will become known once a new head of state has been elected.

English Daniela Konstantinova