As usual, there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that for three years unemployment in Bulgaria has been crawling down and, according to Eurostat data, is now below the average for the EU.

The numbers, fairly optimistic, speak for themselves. In February unemployment in Bulgaria stood at 7.4 percent, the lowest level since September 2009. By way of comparison – the average unemployment rate in Europe was 8.9 percent. This is definitely pleasing to the ear of the country’s government but also of the man in the street who discerns a better chance on the labour market. It is quite another matter, however, that even people who have, somehow, found a job have no cause to feel lucky, seeing as the average cost of labour in the country stands at a mere 4.1 euro per hour; in Denmark, for example the per hour salary is 41.3 euro. In this index – as opposed to unemployment – Bulgaria firmly occupies last place in the EU and is something of a fixture as the poorest country of Europe. It may be true that 4 euro is certainly not the same in Denmark as it is in Bulgaria, where prices are around 60 percent of the European average, but it is also true that the purchasing power of Bulgarians does not enable them to lead a normal life.

What is this gradual, but rather prolonged drop in the unemployment rate due to and is there any chance of its continuing down to the normal level of 4-5 percent? The principal reason why there is a higher demand on the labour market is the economic recovery and the resolution of the 2008-2009 financial and economic crisis. Businesses in the country were able to adapt to the new domestic and world market conditions. Things are not what they were before the crisis, demand has shrunk, major market breakthroughs no longer exist, everything is going ahead at a slower rate and in much more modest proportions. That is why no one is talking of any labour market boom, because tendencies are gradual and slow.

But here comes the bad news – the slowdown in the growth of the Bulgarian economy this year, expected and foreseen by all Bulgarian and foreign experts and observers.

In 2015 the Bulgarian economy demonstrated a certain degree of robustness with a GDP growth of 3 percent, the expectations for this year stand at around 2 percent. The drop may be tangible, though not headlong, so there is no question of a crisis. On the contrary, this tendency is said to be a very accurate reflection of the process, unfolding globally, of the economies’ adaptation to the more moderate rates of development due to the fairly high level of production, investments and consumption now reached. All this is reason enough to say that, unless something unforeseen and disastrous were to befall Bulgaria during the year – and there is a very real chance of this happening for outside reasons – unemployment will continue its downward trend, albeit at an even slower pace. With a total of 248,000 Bulgarians out of a job in February, compared to 252,000 in January and 329,000 a year ago, their number will probably drop down to around 200,000. This is a steady tendency of a drop in unemployment in Bulgaria below the psychological level of 300, 000 for the seventh month running and its descent down to the next psychological threshold – 200,000.

English version: Milena Daynova