We had a difficult 2015 in terms of politics, but what shall we expect from 2016? Two political analysts: Dr. Boris Ivanov, a lecturer at Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski and Georgi Harizanov from the Institute for Rightist Policy, try on a forecast of the political 2016.

After harsh criticism of honorary chair of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms Ahmed Dogan, its leader Liutvi Mestan was ousted from the party on his birthday – December 24. Mestan and five other MPs left the parliamentary floor and will be independent MPs, and Mestan is now expected to establish a new party.

“Over the last 18 months Mr. Mestan did try to play on the liberal side,” Georgi Harizanov comments. “However, the MRF voters tend to be rather conservative and the way Mestan lost his position due to his weak leadership showed that the powerful players around Dogan wouldn’t let the creation of a new political project. That was the purpose of the brutal mob law manner with Mestan.”

The personal invitation of Liutvi Mestan to Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and the empathy demonstrated by PM Ahmet Davutoglu, provoke some conclusions that a future political project might receive the support of Ankara.

“I think Turkey realized it went too far with the decision of its foreign minister to miss the meeting with Mr. Mestan at the gathering, appointed for December 26,” Boris Popivanov says. “I think the stance will be more moderate from now on. It is hard for Mestan to establish a party under such pressure, but anything is possible. In such case I think the new formation’s place will be with the Reformist Bloc, as they have experience with partners of that kind – for instance the party of Kasim Dal.”

There are going to be presidential elections in 2016. What will be the political year?

“I expect the one-dominant-party model to be confirmed in 2016, the way we have been forecasting it with my colleagues for 18 months,” Harizanov says. “Parliamentary represented parties are torn by a series of problems and that will lead to strengthening of the model with one dominant party. It will be good for GERB till the moment when all the others decide that it has become too strong and start to work against it. I think the presidential elections will confirm that trend, but it will be working and winning till the moment we get back to the 2013 scenario, when everyone was against GERB.”

“I think there are two main questions,” Popivanov says. “The first one is to what degree would GERB be tempted to go to early polls, in order to strengthen their presence in parliament. The second one – as there were no new serious political partners on the stage in 2015, will such formations appear, creating a new situation in the state and shooting a challenge out. I think 2015 ended up just like 2014 – with no dramatic replacements in the political spectrum.”

The justice and healthcare reforms were in the governing mouths in 2015, but they never quite happened.

“We had a pension reform, it ended, but it wasn’t a true reform,” Harizanov states. “I am aware of Minister Moskov’s goals for the healthcare reform, but I can’t see the ways he will attain them. I think no one is surprised that the Reformist Bloc’s claims for a state repair with 20 MPs didn’t happen. I expect changes for the better at the voting of the Judicial Power Act after the constitutional amendments.”

Boris Popivanov sees two problems with the reformists:

“One of the theses is that the Reformist Bloc has strong expert potential, unlike GERB. We didn’t spot it in the chaotic actions across 2015. The second thesis is that no reformist actions, changing balances can take place without a constant dialogue with the respective social and professional communities. The Reformist Bloc refused dialogues and things didn’t happen that way. I don’t think that there will be too big changes in 2016, some stabilization will be sought for the minimum pressure, so that the term can go on.”

English version: Zhivko Stanchev