Two of the world’s leading ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch made public their latest evaluations of the Bulgarian economy, with new credit ratings in local and foreign currency. Compared to previous assessments there is no difference. What this means in practical terms is that there are no tangible changes in the national economy – positive or negative – and that investments in Bulgarian debt securities are still a moderate risk and not particularly recommendable.

Some observers in Bulgaria even go as far as to say that in the eyes of foreign investors, Bulgarian debt securities are still in the “junk” category. Whether this is so is highly doubtful, seeing as the Bulgarian government has continued its efforts through the year to sell bonds on the international financial markets and they are not only selling well, but are actually unable to cater for the demand at a very good, for Bulgaria, price. And it is highly unlikely that everyone regards the Bulgarian sovereign debt as a negligible investment opportunity, after all the Bulgarian finance ministry is planning more debt issues amounting to almost EUR 2.7 billion.

Yet there is something that is more important than this – the stability of the Bulgarian economy. Apparently this is more than just the government’s political slogan, it seems to be a fact that is acknowledged by the most impartial of international experts. There is no way this can be a coincidence and appears to reflect reality, which, in the eyes of Bulgarians themselves, is always blacker and gloomier.

All macroeconomic indices demonstrate a stability, they show there are no perturbations or dangerous processes taking place in the Bulgarian economy. Quite the opposite – albeit sluggishly, still it is heading upward, one small step at a time. A 2 percent GDP growth for this or next year, as planned, may not look like much, still it is better than stagnation or recession. This holds good of unemployment and consumption, investments and standard of living. Talking of the standard of living, it should be noted that stability could be regarded as a good thing when it comes to a different kind of economic or social indices, but as far as the incomes of citizens or the state are concerned, it looks more like treading water. What this means for Bulgaria and Bulgarians is that they are barely twitching at rock bottom economically, compared to other European economies. Stability for Bulgaria and its citizens spells being moored in last place by all indices regarding prosperity, competitiveness or better social prospects. Last month’s inflation data go to corroborate this, showing that the faint hopes of a recovery in summer were, once again blighted by deflation which is not welcome by consumers or by businesses.

It may be true that stability is a soothing thought, but at this time the Bulgarian economy needs something quite different – dynamics, stimulation, growth, better prospects for Bulgaria’s citizens, so accustomed to living a life of poverty at rock bottom.

English version: Milena Daynova