Deputy Prime Minister Tomislav Donchev announced in parliament recently that Bulgaria was conducting negotiations with the European Commission on a possible construction, to the territory of the country, of a scaled-down version of the project for the delivery of Russian gas along South Stream via Bulgaria, a project that came to nothing.

Conducting negotiations with the EC is a very good idea, it is also a sine qua non because it was under Commission pressure and by force of its ordinances that the previous project fell through. Because of what happened then, Bulgaria was frustrated, and felt it had fallen victim to rivalry between two super-powers, yet it never relinquished its ambitions of playing a grand role on the European gas market. It was then that Sofia came up with the fanciful and hazy idea of turning the country into a gas hub for European countries near and far. When Russia, disappointed with Europe’s conduct, or to be more specific, Bulgaria’s conduct, turned its attention on Turkey as an alternative route for gas delivery to Europe, the idea was left hanging in the air and was adroitly staved off by the European Commission for the simple reason that a gas hub on Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast would simply have nothing to distribute, except perhaps sea water.

The Bulgarian government’s plans now look far more realistic, yet they still seem more like reckoning without one’s host. Having already got its fingers burnt by Brussels’ obduracy and lack of understanding of its gas appetites, Sofia thought that this time it had better ask whether it would be given the go-ahead first. And though things are as yet hazy, a positive answer is highly likely against the backdrop of the mounting criticism of North Stream 2 and the likelihood of Turkish Stream falling through. Adding to this the unreliable transit of Russian gas across the volatile Ukraine, Central and Western Europe might one dreary day have to face fuel shortages. Bulgaria sensed which way the wind was blowing and grabbed at its chance. But the question is whether, having dashed Bulgaria’s gas hopes once, Russia will put its trust in Sofia and will decide to invest a lump sum in the gas pipeline to the Bulgarian coast. On the other hand, Moscow has a vested interest in having more clients, all the more so that competition is forging ahead while the pipes are becoming a bigger and bigger problem. And one dreary day, Russia may have gas to its heart’s content but no way to deliver it to consumers in Europe. So, Moscow should find Sofia’s new scheme tempting.

The question remains who shall pay for the construction of the gas pipeline well ahead of the time when it should be clear whether there will actually be a new Bulgarian gas project or not. But Sofia seems to have done its homework and has been saying it would be looking for investors from the private sector.

A host of other particulars are still extremely vague and it will probably take a long time before the future of this new Bulgarian gas project is any clearer. Yet it could be said that at this point it looks more realistic, and that the first steps along the long road to its implementation are well-advised. Making a Bulgarian gas stream more feasible.

English version: Milena Daynova