There has been a growth marked as of the start of the year of import and export, with a change of 9.4 percent of export on the previous year, according to preliminary data of the National Statistical Institute /NSI/. However, the export growth went 2 percent down in July.

“The drop of prices of petrol products is one of the reasons, as those are among the main export items of this country’s industry,” says Mr. Lachezar Bogdanov from Industry Watch. “There are temporary factors, affecting the market: Greece was blocked in July, banks didn’t work. At the same time trade relations of Bulgaria with the other neighboring states – Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey have been registering a dynamic growth. As far as we can see, there is no serious data on an industrial drop and the negative influence on export is due to external conditions.”

The Bulgarian export to Greece includes different goods: electricity, timber, medicines, chemical products, clothing, shoes… That is why the July events’ losses in the southern neighbor are not taken by a single industry only, but by many. However, if we lower the level to separate companies – there is no doubt many of those have suffered severe losses due to the financial problems of their Greek partners.

The integration between EU member-states Bulgaria, Greece and Romania has marked a very serious progress. Many Greek investors have dislocated their production capacities in Bulgaria and export production to the Greek market. These are natural flows, using the specifics of the Balkan region.

“Outside the EU, China is the second major trade partner of Bulgaria, besides Turkey,” Mr. Bogdanov further comments. “The export of Bulgarian goods towards China has registered a growth of nearly 14 percent as of the start of the year. We also witness a drop of more than 20 percent, as far as the export to Russia is concerned – expected, due to the sanctions between Russia and the EU. A growth of 75 percent is marked in the export of goods to Ukraine, or a restoration of the levels before the military conflict. Export to Serbia is now 20 percent higher. The main trends are for redirection of trade to China and the accelerating of the connections with Turkey and Greece.”

All those negative trends related to Greece and Russia and the positive trends in export to China, Turkey, Serbia and others, do not result in losing and winning industries which is a sign for adaptiveness.

“The relatively positive frame of export is preserved which is also related to the good picture of the Bulgarian industry,” Lachezar Bogdanov adds. In his words, the pace achieved is expected to be sustained and the Bulgarian export to the EU and non-EU countries to go up by 6 – 7 percent on an annual basis.

There was a 10 percent growth of the import of investment goods over the first 6 months of 2015 (machineries, appliance, vehicles). If this trend persists till the end of the year, it might cause a more serious enlivening of economic investments after all.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev