In 2050 Bulgarians will be some 5 million people - two million less than now. According to a UN report on the demographic development, Bulgaria will be the country with the fastest declining population in the world. It is not clear what the ratio of the three major ethnic groups in Bulgaria - Bulgarians, Turks and Roma will be.

One of the main reasons for the drastic decline of the Bulgarian population is the low birth rate. But promoting having more children without thinking about their education and upbringing could be a problem in the future. It is therefore necessary that the state intervenes.

“We need to provide support to families, but not only in the form of social assistance for the most vulnerable groups,” says associate professor Elitsa Dimitrova from the Institute for Population and Human Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Science. The state should expand its scope of action and help middle-class families too. People in Bulgaria face serious difficulties associated with raising children and their education, so a policy aimed at helping families in which both parents work, would give good results.”

And while the number of one’s children is still a matter of personal choice, this is not the case with mortality and unfortunately Bulgaria is at the top of the high mortality chart of the EU. "In fact, mortality is a function of the quality of healthcare in a given society," says associate professor Elitsa Dimitrova, adding that improving healthcare would have a quick positive effect on the demographic situation in the country.

However, emigration continues to contribute to the population decline. Since the political changes in 1990 some 1.8 million Bulgarians have chosen to leave the country, data by the National Statistical Institute show.

“A big problem is migration of young people. They leave the country mostly because of the economic situation - low incomes, impossibility to plan the future, uncertainty, dissatisfaction with the overall situation in the country. Bulgaria is among the countries with the highest youth unemployment and young people live with their parents for long time as they do not have the finances to start an independent life. It is therefore necessary to support these groups and provide better opportunities for them on the labor market. This is the only way to reduce migration among young people of working age.”

Opening the borders for refugees and Bulgarians living abroad seems an easy way to solve the population crisis. But is it so?

“Migration is one of the ways of the western countries to deal with the demographic situation,” says associate professor Elitsa Dimitrova. “Immigration of people of working age helps revive their economies and improve the demographic situation. Migration is not a simple decision as people cannot integrate immediately into a different society. Here come the issue of the profile of migrants, the cultural differences, the economic environment in which they fall. It is important to think about the migration policy of this country because this way the consequence of the demographic crisis could be mitigated. However, migration is not a panacea and cannot compensate for the declining number of Bulgarians.”

Still Bulgaria could try attracting the Bulgarian communities now living abroad. Unlike refugees, they would be integrated much faster because of our common identity and consciousness.

Usually reports with alarming demographic data are the reason for headlines like “Bulgaria Disappears.” Indeed, it is unrealistic to expect that Bulgarian women will suddenly start having 3 or more children but we also cannot say that the Bulgarian population would vanish, Ms. Dimitrova says. According to her, the alarming forecasts can be changed by adequate political measures.

English: Alexander Markov