We still hope for the so needed reforms to happen in the systems of justice, healthcare and education over the new political season. We might hope for a bunch of measures, aimed at the solving of certain problems from the systems above mentioned. However, we might not see the entire restructuring of these with the purpose of more effectiveness.

“Unfortunately the latest reforms of that kind took place at the Kostov government /1997 – 2001/, amidst a really dramatic environment, when the society was ready for radical reforms,” says political analyst Dr. Stoicho Stoichev from the St. Kliment Ohridski University. “The reason is that the status quo suits too many people. I am talking not only of politicians, but also of the active participants in these systems – pupils, students and university lecturers. The same thing can be said about the educational sphere. Over the past 25 years these systems have developed relations of clientelism, with schemes for drainage of budget funding and players adapted to those – so, every one of them is afraid of the future and would hate to spoil the status quo. And the future is not bright right now as we might tourn out to have one of the most expensive systems of healthcare in Europe, not of good quality though. The same thing can be said about university education as it is not competitive enough. The reason lies in the wrong financial stimuli. The system of funding – money follows the student – is what lies behind those lowered criteria.”

Political expert Dr. Boris Popivanov from Sofia University says that the Reformist Bloc, the main reformist power within this parliamentary majority has failed to explain to the Bulgarian society how the suggested reforms will improve the situation.

“At the same time we witness the slowing down of the reformist proposals’ pace and we are about to see lots of postponing in the future. As far as the status quo inside the country is concerned, I think it is solid enough. It is true that the Reformists are not happy with the failing and postponing of the reforms by the other partners, but they know that the options are no good in case they leave the majority. The other coalitional partners are also interested in the preserving of the political formula after the local elections as well. At the same time the Movement for Rights and Freedoms is rumored to get closer to the power, but it is far from intending to do it officially – by introducing its ministers, for instance. The MRF finds it enough to control the agenda of the government and the parliament. These are the ambitions of its leader Mestan, I believe.”

The post-election upheavals are foreseen by both experts in the following wayt:

“We know now that GERB is expected to remain the leading political force,” Dr. Stoichev says. “In case it takes more than 50% of the mayors’ seats, it might claim more from its presence in the coalition. If the RB parties score a dramatic loss, I think the balance will be re-negotiated.”

“We might expect some restructuring after the local polls,” Dr. Popivanov comments. “I am not sure that it will result in the restructuring of the governing formula. If we are talking about the MRF influence in parliament and in the executive power, the new formula has already been implemented – there is no need to wait for the local elections.”

English version: Zhivko Stanchev