A well-armed and trained group of people cast a shadow over Macedonia this weekend, leaving dozens of killed and wounded in fighting with the police in Kumanovo. Having cut his visit to Russia short because of the clashes, after a sitting of the National Security Council, President George Ivanov declared that the police had prevented coordinated terrorist attacks at different locations in the country and that the members of the group were extremists and criminals with remarkable military training and skills and combat experience both in the region and in the Middle East. According to Nikola Gruevski this was the most dangerous terrorist group in the Balkans.

As could have been expected, there followed a series of reactions by politicians from the region and the world expressing concern and anxiety. In a special declaration NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that it was important that all political and community leaders work together to restore calm and conduct a transparent investigation in the interest of the country and the entire region.

But things have not blown over yet and this should not come as a surprise. A breach in the country’s national security should probably have been expected after such a protracted parliamentary and political crisis - with the opposition out of the decision-making process and a deep rift among the government coalition partners, including in their relations with the President.

A parliamentary and political crisis against the backdrop of irreconcilable feuds within the Macedonian, but also the Albanian political community, part of which is represented in the government and part is in opposition. A parliamentary and political crisis against the backdrop of a grave problem – Macedonia’s name which is a stumbling block on the country’s way to accession to NATO and the EU and one more grave problem – recognition of the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox church which places it in an awkward position among the international Orthodox community. A deep domestic parliamentary and political crisis against the backdrop of the paramilitary formations that have been in existence since the time of the 2001 ethnic conflict which want the creation of a “Republic of Ilirida” and want the international factors to pressure the Macedonian authorities into accepting it, otherwise they will destroy the entire Balkans, they say. Paramilitary formations which were created during the 2001 ethnic conflict but which now include fighters with combat experience in the Middle East and probably from the Islamic State itself. It is clear that events in Macedonia need more than an investigation, they need a profound political analysis.

English version: Milena Daynova