In a 2014 Stratfor Global Intelligence analysis, the founder and director of the firm for geopolitical intelligence Dr. George Friedman points to the Black Sea as a crucial geopolitical centre. “There are currently two active theaters of military action with broad potential significance. One is Ukraine, the other is in the Syria-Iraq region. In most senses, there is no connection between these two theaters. But for the United States, which must allocate its attention, political will and military power carefully, the two crises must be thought of together. When we look at a map, we note that the Black Sea is the geographic organizing principle of these areas. The sea is the southern frontier of Ukraine and European Russia and the Caucasus. But thinking in terms of securing what I'll call the Greater Black Sea Basin would provide a framework for addressing the current thought exercise,” Dr. Friedman writes.

“This idea does not come out of the blue and I think we have reason enough to reassess the role of the Black Sea region in developments in the modern world,” said Dinko Dinkov, Professor of International Relations at the University of National and World Economy at the third annual conference “The Balkans in the 21st century – the Bulgarian view.”

“The Black Sea is definitely in the centre of an emerging region that focuses numerous international problems,” Prof. Dinkov goes on to say. “To my mind, to be able to understand the new things appearing there, we must take note of the fact that in 2007 the EU gained an outlet on the Black Sea when Bulgaria and Romania joined the union. Perhaps we failed to grasp the significance of a European Commission document that came out just a few months after our accession – the Black Sea Synergy. In this document the EU makes it abundantly clear that he who has an interest in interacting with the Black Sea region cannot afford to ignore the interests of the Union. And I think we should have realized that in good time. I perceive in the writings of analysts from the United States, including from Stratfor, the idea that the Black Sea is the place where many interests intersect, as well as the idea of unifying the American plans with regard to the Middle East, the Caucasus, Ukraine, the Black Sea region as a whole, the Balkans. I think that to comprehend the processes taking place in the region as well as its prospects, we must turn to the fact that we have two Black Sea countries with a markedly growing self-assurance and the ambition to play an increasingly important role in international relations – Russia and Turkey. Without the shadow of a doubt, Moscow has been demonstrating just such ambitions and the fact that the Crimean Peninsula passed over into Russian hands is something of a wakeup call. Turkey, currently the 15th or 16th most powerful economy in the world has the ambition to climb up to the top 10 by the time it marks the centenary of the republic, an indication of our Southern neighbour’s wish to play a more and more significant role in the Black Sea region and beyond, to the regions adjacent to the Black Sea.”

According to Prof. Dinkov, security guarantees in the Black Sea region can be attained when all factors with an interest in this area interact closely. The risks may ensue from attempts to ignore the interests of any of the ptincipal factors in the contemporary international system – the influential Black Sea nations as well as USA and EU.

“There is one crucial factor that must be the subject of thorough analysis – the international regulations connected with maritime shipping in the Black Sea,” Prof. Dinkov says. “You know about the Montreux Convention, which sets down the navigation rules as well as some restrictions, especially regarding the navies of non-Black Sea countries. I have been monitoring things very closely and I have noticed some serious attempts to circumvent some of the restrictions set down by the Montreux Convention. Observing international law means opening up new prospects for countries like Bulgaria and Romania, both Black Sea countries. I think that in view of the EU’s foreign policy, our membership of NATO must fit into a new strategy of the unions the country is a member of.”

English version: Milena Daynova