After a 17-hour grueling sitting on Friday night that continued into the early hours of Saturday morning, the National Assembly finally adopted the country’s national budget for 2015 without much debate or emotion.

In Bulgaria this is thought to be the most important bill of the year, as health care, justice, security, education, the economic and the social sphere all depend on the money the state will be distributing; around a quarter of the population also receive direct payments from the treasury.

“I am not saying this is a good budget, I am saying it is the only possible budget,” said Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov laconically, adding that the principal aim is stabilization and security after two years of political and social turmoil and crises.

Stabilization and security are terms that are diametrically opposed to the term “reform” which means changes and transformations. But that was one of the promises the coalition government of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov made when it came to power in October. Financially, this intention has found no place in the budget. And that is as it should be, some experts say, stressing that from now on money will only be granted in exchange for reforms – this means mapping out and adopting changes in the different social spheres which are in direst need of transformation, with financing coming afterwards. This seems to be a good approach, something Fitch Ratings Agency acknowledges – on the day the budget was adopted it confirmed Bulgaria's credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook.

In point of fact the only more radical measure envisaged for next year is a 10 percent cut in costs for public administration, as its efficiency is questionable, according to most observers and even some cabinet ministers.

There is nothing sensational in the principal financial parameters of the national budget for 2015. From the inadmissible from Brussels’ point of view 3.7 percent of the GDP in 2014, the public deficit is envisaged to be cut down to the acceptable 3 percent. State revenues for 2015 are planned at 36.8 percent, expenditures – 39.8 percent of the GDP. The state will take out another loan amounting to EUR 4.2 billion with the public debt reaching close to 30 percent of the GDP – a level that is quite normal and sensible.

Yet there is something that causes concern – the economic growth rate is to drop from 1.6 this year to 0.8 percent – a trifling percentage for a country that needs a double-digit growth rate if it wants to come close to the other countries members of the EU. Businesses had other expectations and even accused the administration of being overcautious and conservative in their forecasts. Even Minister of the Economy Bozhidar Lukarski joined in this chorus, stating the economic growth would be considerably higher. This opinion is corroborated by the forecast in next year’s budget that the deflation registered in 2014 which is killing business will at long last be replaced by a healthy inflation of a little over 1 percent.

English: Milena Daynova