European skepticism, crisis after crisis, austerity measures, deficits, unemployment ... Even the hard core of the EU - Germany, France and Benelux, has started to experience severe hardships. Risks remain for Europe because politicians have failed to learn the lessons of the crisis. Now a more colorful European Parliament comes as a guarantee that this time it would be more difficult to pass the wrong policies and ineffective economic reforms and that at least some unnecessary moves of the European Commission will be blocked. Investors especially in the new EU member states have already braced for possible political volatility. More, from macroeconomist Georgi Stoev from Industry Watch.
What route will Europe take after the elections and what will be the economic policies it will opt for?
"Both now and after the debt crisis started, there are two ways to choose from. The first one is to learn the lessons from this crisis and to learn from the mistakes related to European integration and unification of the 28 member countries. Basically these errors are associated with too heavy regulations of the labor market resulting in high unemployment, increased minimum wages in many countries, a leap in social benefits, etc. All this blocks economic development and leaves a large part of the population, especially in the southern countries, in the throes of unemployment. Another way to go is with politicians sobering up a little more after this explicit vote and bracing to pursue reforms towards liberalization of the labor market, easier hiring and firing workers, plus lower taxes in some countries. Usually this way is less likely in economic policy. Politicians will not be able to learn this lesson. "
The worrying thing is that fiscal hardships have already started to plague even the northern part of Europe.
"Against this background, it is difficult to produce a bullish outlook for credit growth, investment, new jobs, growing incomes and all that is usually associated with improving people's lives. Simply, the situation is such that the debt crisis now seems over, nevertheless, risks remain."
Let us take a look at Bulgaria. How will this colorful Euroepan Parliament influence this country’s economy?
"European policies won’t be easy to promote, as well as a whole range of general regulations and general rules of the bloc. At the end of the day, however, as we look back, most of the policies have actually generated major costs for both businesses and citizens. These policies have been more detrimental to the EU than useful. In this case it seems that democracy still works. Now the greater part of the crap that MEPs have conceived will happen perhaps, but with much greater difficulty. If we transfer on this onto the Bulgarian Parliament as a mirror of the European one, we can see that the largest party starts behaving in a stronger and bolder way as an opposition and most likely will be in a better position to block some negative economic policies. In actual fact we should not expect any direct impact on the Bulgarian economy."
Bulgaria is heavily dependent on Europe not to mention the fact that 65% of exports go to EU. When Europe sneezes, we get the flu…
"We work with forecasts for economic growth around 0.1 percent, i.e. there is no hint that a strong recovery is in the offing. What we need in a slightly longer term are fresh investments, new jobs and higher productivity than the current one. This is what Bulgaria has been in need of since 2008. Currently it is very hard to make any optimistic predictions. "
Where will investments come from?
"Bulgaria is poor in domestic savings and capitals. If we want to grow again with the rates that the country saw prior to 2007, investments shall have to come from abroad. If you ask me from which direction – from the North, West, South or East, it would be ideal if they came from all directions. In the end, money does not have either smell or color. When it comes here, especially in the form of machinery, equipment and production lines, it powers jobs and growth alike”.
English Daniela Konstantinova
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