The month of March has been a time of strong performance of the Bulgarian opposition but also a period of political weightlessness. For quite some time the political process looked clear and easy to explain with two distinct poles namely the government and the protesters that until recently drew clear lines between the two camps. Now these clear lines have been washed away. This is in short the summary provided by political analysts Dimitar Ganev and Parvan Simeonov from the Ivan Hadjiiski Institute for Social Values and Structures.

In terms of political affairs, March was Gerb’s month. Despite the activities of the steering committee for the collection of 500,000 signatures for a referendum on new election rules suggested by the president the success of the campaign was due to that political party. “The BSP is a loser in the Ukrainian conflict being unable to come up with a firm position”, political analyst Dimitar Ganev told Radio Bulgaria.

“Gerb was successful in gaining legitimacy as the only viable opposition party. In the first place, the government has displayed a communication deficit unable to explain credibly any of its successes. This has been going on for months in fact. Secondly, where the key political case, the conflict in Ukraine, is concerned, no clear and firm position has been taken. Gerb actually took the initiative for the referendum by collecting the signatures. No one disputes that fact. Polls suggest that for a third month in a row the BSP has been going down and Gerb has been going up. This confirms the thesis that street pressure works to mobilize BSP voters and the moment it is eased, voters lose motivation. The prospect of BSP ranking second at the elections looks very real. This in turn will result in a violent war of interpretations on the part of the political players.”

Dimitar Ganev argues that though Gerb has been successful in uniting political resources outside government, it is likely to face political isolation at the elections.

“Gerb is unable to find a partner”, he explains, “because in the course of four years it bullied all its partners. It brought down all bridges with other parties. There is no doubt that this style will go on unchanged. This has brought Gerb to a unique situation. In a parliament with four parties, the antagonists MRF and Ataka are ready to join forces to keep Gerb in opposition. This is a pending problem for this party. In the beginning, the Reformist Bloc was quite adamant not to side with Gerb but now this stiff position has been mitigated. The not very rosy prospects for the Reformist Bloc imply that Gerb will not be able to rely on it during possible early parliamentary elections. The campaign for the European elections in May will be based on the following clashes: on the one hand, the BSP and MRF supporting the government versus the opposition Gerb and the Reformist Bloc. The new political party Bulgaria without Censorship that boasts decent voter support, and the ABV project of president Parvanov (2002-2012) are going to build political legitimacy, while the nationalist groups Ataka and National Front for Salvation of Bulgaria will be vying for supremacy where the nationalist voters are concerned.

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Political analyst Parvan Simeonov comments on the situation in Ukraine, Crimea’s annexation and the Bulgarian position.

“We have a Bulgarian ethnic minority in Ukraine, Bulgaria is economically dependent on Russia and what this country needs is clear guarantees that the economy won’t lose heavily from possible economic sanctions. However, Bulgaria is also part of the European political family and our position should be synchronized with it. So far, the authorities in Sofia are trying to tip the balance. Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin made a symbolic visit to Kiev. At the same time, the BSP is very careful in uttering every single word of its position. There is even a sense of chaos but in fact a skilled foreign-policy course can make it polyvalent. I doubt that Bulgaria can spend a long time with this position because the moment will come for it to take sides. What sounds appeasing from today’s point of view is that Europe itself has got no clear position between political affairs and business.”

English version: Daniela Konstantinova