The results of the forthcoming EP election will have both a European and a national significance for Bulgaria. The constitution of the EC and the ratio at the EP will depend on that, while PES respects the return game of the now ruling EPP. Those will also test the legitimacy of the government. If both governing parties – the Socialists and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms have more MEPs, this will be a sign for support for the Oresharski cabinet. Otherwise the opposition in and outside Parliament will demand early elections.

Over the 24 years of transition the solidity of the socialist party and its coalition partners has never been questioned, unlike the one of the rightist forces. The situation has changed as of two weeks. What happened? The Alternative for Bulgarian Revival /abbreviated in Bulgarian as ABV/ project of ex-President Georgi Parvanov was launched back in 2010, during his mandate. It was sharply criticized by the socialists and frozen not long before its start. In the autumn of 2013 the project was restarted in the form of a discussion network, after the latest congress of the leftist party, as Parvanov openly opposed the leadership of Sergey Stanishev. In the begging of 2014 the project reached its peak, when its own list at the forthcoming EP election was proclaimed.

“This is the personal project of former President Parvanov for his further participation in Bulgaria’s political life,” political analyst Dr. Valeri Zhablyanov, a socialist MP and member of the party’s national council said in an interview for Radio Bulgaria. “The ABV has no ideological orientation and that is why this project is not leftist, it is a different political construction. Mr. Parvanov doesn’t see it as an alternative to the socialist party and he claims no intention to leave the latter, or its governing bodies. Currently only the ambition for a second list at the EP election has been proclaimed.”

The leader of this second list is the only thing certain for the moment – this is current MEP Ivaylo Kalfin, well-known at the European Parliament. He wrote a letter to Sergey Stanishev, asking to be released from the leadership position among the Bulgarian leftist MPs. He gave his reasons in an interview for Radio Bulgaria.

“We don’t establish a new party, but this is a way we can show that things in Bulgaria should change and this is not the way to make policy. Essential problems remain unsolved, while politicians are engaged in personal attacks. I am talking about demography, the collapse in the healthcare and social systems, the uncertainty in the retirement system etc. We need consensus and not collision on such issues. Politicians do not make decisions in a transparent manner and we don’t know who bears the responsibility, since the trust in main institutions collapses. This should change.”

So, now we have the initial serious quakes within the leftist party. The group of Parvanov faced the total disapproval of the rest of the socialist party, as voiced by its current leader Sergey Stanishev after the national meeting in Plovdiv. In his words it was a matter of a moral assessment and future sanctions are to be discussed, if such should be imposed. He also said he was personally disappointed by the fact that MEP Ivaylo Kalfin joined the ABV project:

“I see this decision as a politically foolish one,” Stanishev said. “After all, the reasons for the stance of different socialists are vague and Ivaylo Kalfin is not even one of them. This action is aimed against the Bulgarian Socialist Party and serves the needs of our political opponent GERB, working against the government too. At our meeting different chairs of municipal party councils voiced with different grades of emotion proposals, varying from firm measures to a last appeal for the ceasing of such actions. The ABV group will have to face the consequences, if its members don’t stop now.”

The BSP headquarters had given time by January 27 for the withdrawal of the ABV list, but Georgi Parvanov rejected the term immediately. The behavior of the new group will be most likely discussed at the congress of the party, as no extremities, such as exclusion, are expected. The audience is now watching the show of the mutual attacks, exchanged by Parvanov and Stanishev. In the meantime GERB leader Boyko Borissov wrote a letter to Sergey Stanishev, stating that he wouldn’t get into any coalitions with leftist political forces. He denies any claims on a scenario for a cleavage of the socialists via cooperation with ABV. Anyway, we are to see and hear a lot more before the EP election, when the people will have the final word.

English version: Zhivko Stanchev