The year 2013 was quite dynamic and unstable, as Bulgaria’s political elite continued to degrade. The culture of consensus between parties is collapsing, which might block the country. These were some of the conclusions in a December 2013 report of the Institute for Political and Legal Studies. A month later its Director Prof. Dr. Georgi Karasimeonov comments that early polls are likely to take place due to the ever more inadmissible behavior of the Ataka nationalist party, which at the same time provides the quorum in Parliament. Otherwise, 2013 was a year of protests, one way or another, the political expert states.

“We can talk of an awakening of the civic society and activating of parts of it. After the summer we have observed processes, revealing the attempt of the civil society to keep in a state of stress the governing elite, demanding more transparency, an end to backroom deals and greater interaction between citizens and rulers. This is a new moment in the development of the civic movement. There had been winter protests before that, but people demanded more material things back then, the issues were economic. However, both protest waves showed clearly one thing – that Bulgarian citizen would no longer take the passive stand, watching it all from aside the political arena. They will now want to press seriously, whenever governmental and other decisions are taken. This was perhaps the most distinguished feature of 2013.”

What are the decisive factors for 2014?

“Those will be the EP elections. For Bulgaria they will be a very serious test on the influence and stance of Bulgarian political parties in the very delicate current parliamentary situation with that vague majority. Besides that, new parties and political subjects are stepping onto the stage and those will want to check their power and influence through these polls. To a great extend they will be able to reveal eventual new party configurations and future coalitional agreements. Some old parties may drop out and new ones may appear. The EP elections will also show whether there will be early elections in Bulgaria too, besides being a test for the governing coalition. If it shows good results, a risk of that kind could be taken again. This is my opinion, especially if we take into consideration all that happens in view of the Ataka nationalist party.”

Major political players retired in 2013, such as Ahmed Dogan /MRF/ and Ivan Kostov /DSB/. Is this a sort of transition towards a new political class?

“25 years after the start of the democratization process in Bulgaria it is a normal thing for the initial politicians to get tired and worn out in politics, hence their withdrawal. I think their influence will gradually decline. Of course, Dogan is very powerful within the strongly centralized Movement for Rights and Freedoms and he will have the final word in cases of major decisions. At the same time we see a transition towards a new political class. We see new faces in the now forming Reformist Bloc and there is a new generation of politicians amidst other parties as well. We witness the birth of new parties, so 2014 we will be typical with this trend of development.”

Do you expect stabilization, as far as home affairs are concerned?

“As I said, it will all depend on the EP elections, but also on the political situation. New parliamentary polls would doubtlessly mean a new period of uncertainty. It will be a period of a new caretaker government and a following pre-election campaign that will be heavy with conflicts. So the question is whether the EP polls and, I would say, the behavior of Ataka and other political formations will stimulate instability and will lead to early elections, or a more stable situation will be attained. I myself foresee eventual early polls and this means an element of instability for the whole situation.”

Do you see any foreign issues, bearing in mind some “territorial claims” by our Balkan neighbors?

“My personal opinion is that being a NATO and EU member-state, Bulgaria has no reasons for concern in that direction. Very often such claims mean only home political issues within our neighbors. Both Turkey and Romania face serious problems and tension, combined with economic difficulties. At the same time nationalist groups voice their claims periodically. This has been a process, we have been witnessing in the course of the past decades, and not only during the democracy period. Nobody is pleased by such claims, but I think Bulgaria should react in a calm manner above all and not buy it. This country should continue to be a factor of peace and stability in the region. Being an EU and NATO member-state, Bulgaria should be against what we hear as separate voices and theses in neighboring countries and coming from some nationalist parties. I don’t see Bulgaria as a victim of such claims, as real policy shows that no geopolitical borders shall be violated.”

English version: Zhivko Stanchev