Are we going to plant new seeds or the harvest of the previous year is expecting us? A growth or recession; emancipation or dependence on the political situation: what will Bulgarian economy see over 2014? Which will be decisive – ratings or the professional flair of investors? Which are the underwater stones and the positive trends? Shall we attach a plus or a minus to the Bulgarian economy this year?

Our economics proved to be quite sustainable to crises and shakes over the transition years. Macroeconomic indicators testify on that either and we can be even an example to countries in a state of recession. We say that “economy experts predicted 9 out of the last 5 crises,” but at the same time we can’t do without their forecasts, the way we can’t live without weathermen… That is why we discuss 2014 with economy expert Ruslan Stefanov from the Center for the Study of Democracy:

Shall we sow or reap this year?

“We sow and reap every year,” Ruslan Stefanov says. “We will reap what we sowed last year – things like debts, decisions on EU programmes, projects implemented etc. At the same time we are sowing for the next months. For instance – the decisions from the end of 2013, such as the decreased price of electricity and the transferring of budget revenues’ reductions to 2015. We took additional loans and this will be “reaped” by the next generations too. The main transfer from 2013 will remain the enormous lack of a good, clear and long-term engagement of the Bulgarian government for a stimulation of the competitiveness of this country’s economy. As far as the crisis is concerned – we should take a look at the EU. When we still have a Europe in pieces, with lots of fear and uncertainty on what will happen next, with growth of 0.5 percent, I don’t think we can expect anything quite different from last year.”

A growth or recession?

“It’s more like growth within the frameworks of last year’s one. Maybe a bit higher, but this does depend on the development of European economy. And we don’t see some incredible growth, at least not over the first six months of 2014. There will be an economy growth, but people will feel it more like getting partly sunny at some spots. Well, at least there will be no recession, that’s for sure.”

Emancipation, or dependence of economy on the political situation?

“We can expect both. Bulgaria’s economy after 2008 has been developing despite the governing policy. For instance, 2013 – it saw problems, poor governance, scandals and a chaos. At the same time economy kept its 2012 level. I.e. we witness emancipation from this point of view. I hope that this “despite” thing will begin to drop, although this hope is mostly due to New Year’s excitement than grounded on some real expectations. Otherwise economy works despite the numerous obstacles and uncertainty, caused by politicians.”

Underwater stones or positive trends?

“It will be more like positive trends, especially for the export oriented businesses. The opening of the EU market for the Bulgarians is a trend, no less positive. We shouldn’t forget that now Bulgaria enters the EU as a full member. However, a big “but” remains – the incapability of politicians to cope with corruption, grey economy, organized crime and the system of justice. That is where the underground stones can be found.”

Shall we place a plus or a minus before Bulgarian economy?

“Well, when the year kicks off, I will always say: “a plus”. We all start positively. It is not only a result of trends, but because certain recovery can be witnessed in Europe and across the globe. We hope that there will be a greater certainty in Europe, which will transfuse here either. So, it is definitely a plus sign.”

English version: Zhivko Stanchev